April 10, 2019

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Opinions shift on confidence in Mueller; on state issues, majorities support legal marijuana, higher special education spending, oppose increase in gas tax

Please note: Complete poll results and methodology information can be found online at

MILWAUKEE 鈥� Following the announcement that the federal investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller has concluded, a new 不良研究所 Law School Poll finds a range of reactions to what is known of those conclusions, as well as modest changes in evaluations of President Donald Trump.

Forty-six percent of registered voters in Wisconsin approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52 percent disapprove. In January, 44 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved.

Support for reelecting the president is also little changed since January 鈥� 28 percent say that they would definitely vote to reelect Trump, and 14 percent would probably vote to reelect him. Another 8 percent say that they would probably vote for someone else, and 46 percent would definitely vote for someone else. In January, 27 percent said that they would definitely vote to reelect Trump, 12 percent said that they would probably vote for him, 8 percent that they would probably vote for someone else and 49 percent that would definitely vote for someone else.

Based on what respondents have heard about Mueller鈥檚 report so far, 42 percent say they have a great deal of confidence that the investigation was fair and impartial, 25 percent say they have some confidence, 10 percent have only a little confidence and 14 percent say they have no confidence at all in the fairness of the investigation. When the question was last asked in early October 2018, 31 percent said they had a great deal of confidence in the fairness of the investigation, 19 percent had some confidence, 13 percent had only a little confidence and 26 percent said they had no confidence at all.

Confidence in the Mueller investigation rose among Republicans and independents, while it declined among Democrats. Among Republicans, the percentage expressing a great deal of confidence rose from 12 percent in October to 43 percent in April, while those having no confidence at all declined from 38 percent in October to 19 percent in April. Among independents, the proportion of those who said they had a great deal of confidence increased from 29 percent in October to 41 percent in April. Independents with no confidence in the investigation declined from 25 percent to 14 percent. Among Democrats, those expressing a great deal of confidence declined from 58 percent in October to 45 percent in April, but those Democrats with no confidence also declined from 13 percent to 8 percent, as more Democrats picked the 鈥渟ome confidence鈥� or 鈥渙nly a little confidence鈥� options.

While the full Mueller report had not been released at the time of the April poll, respondents express a range of conclusions based on what they have heard about the report.

A majority, 60 percent, think that Russia interfered with the 2016 presidential election, while 32 percent think Russia did not interfere.

Thirty-five percent think the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 election, while a majority, 53 percent, think the campaign did not collude.

Opinion is evenly divided on whether Trump tried to obstruct the investigation, with 45 percent saying he did and 45 percent saying he did not.

While 39 percent say the investigation clears Trump of any wrongdoing, 54 percent say they believe questions still exist concerning the president鈥檚 behavior.

Support for beginning hearings on impeachment stands at 29 percent, down from 33 percent in January. Those saying that there is not enough cause for impeachment hearings rose to 65 percent in April from 59 percent in January.

Those who say 鈥渉onest鈥� describes President Trump rose to 35 percent in this April poll from 31 percent in January. Fifty-nine percent in the new poll say 鈥渉onest鈥� does not describe him, compared to 62 percent in January.

The poll was conducted April 3-7, 2019. The sample included 800 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Eight questions were asked of one half of the sample and seven were asked of the other half. Questions on Form A have a sample size of 404 and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 396 and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. The half-sample items are listed at the end of this release. The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats and independents who do not lean to the Republican party. That sample size is 411 with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percentage points.

Democratic presidential candidates
Among 12 current or potential Democratic presidential candidates, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are top choices among Democrats or independents who do not lean to the Republican party, with Sanders a top choice of 32 percent and Biden a top choice of 29 percent. Elizabeth Warren is a top choice of 17 percent. In January, Sanders was a top choice of 23 percent, Biden a top choice of 32 percent and Warren a top choice of 15 percent.

Support for all 12 candidates included in the survey is shown in Table 1. Respondents were asked for each candidate if that person would be a top choice, an acceptable choice, someone they would not support, or if they haven鈥檛 heard enough about the candidate yet.

Table 1: Support for Democratic candidates, in order of 鈥渁 top choice鈥�

	A top choice	An acceptable choice	Would not support	Haven鈥檛 heard enough
Sanders	32	39	20	7
Biden	29	43	19	6
Warren	17	35	18	28
Harris	11	27	13	45
翱鈥橰辞耻谤办别	10	27	14	45
Booker	9	29	12	46
Klobuchar	8	26	12	50
Buttigieg	7	18	8	63
Castro	4	18	11	63
Inslee	2	11	8	72
Gillibrand	2	21	16	57
Hickenlooper	1	15	10	67

The January poll asked about eight of these candidates. Those results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: January support for Democratic candidates, in order of 鈥渁 top choice鈥�

	A top choice	An acceptable choice	Would not support	Haven鈥檛 heard enough
Biden	32	44	16	7
Sanders	23	38	28	9
Warren	15	36	17	30
翱鈥橰辞耻谤办别	12	21	8	56
Booker	8	24	8	56
Harris	8	23	11	54
Klobuchar	5	20	8	62
Castro	4	16	10	65

Opinion of the governor and legislature
After three months in office, Gov. Tony Evers鈥� job approval stands at 47 percent, with disapproval at 37 percent. Fifteen percent say they don鈥檛 have an opinion. In January, 39 percent approved, 22 percent disapproved and 38 percent lacked an opinion.

Fifty percent say they approve of the job the Wisconsin legislature is doing, while 38 percent say they disapprove and 11 percent say they do not know. In January, 52&nb